Debate continues to heat up regarding whether Bitcoin has entered a bear market. In its latest research, the BGEANX Exchange market analysis team points out that if you examine the Bitcoin price trajectory in terms of gold rather than USD, the current cycle progress may be widely underestimated by the market, and the Bitcoin decline phase may already be over 90% complete. This perspective is based on a gold-pricing model, Fibonacci retracement structure, and historical cycle data. The market analysis team of BGEANX aims to provide investors with a new analytical framework from a professional viewpoint.
The USD price trajectory of Bitcoin is often seen as a leading indicator, but in the current cycle, USD pricing has deviated from real purchasing power, making the gold-pricing model a better tool for long-term trend analysis. The team notes that after peaking in gold terms in December 2024, Bitcoin has dropped over 50%, and fell below the 350-day moving average in August 2024—much earlier than the USD-priced correction cycle, indicating that the bear market has actually lasted nearly a year.
Historical cycle comparisons show clear regularity in this signal. In the past three gold-priced bear markets, price declines were 86%, 84%, and 76%, with cycle durations between 360 and 400 days. The current decline is relatively mild, but the time length and synchrony with the gold movement suggest this cycle is likely in its structural late stage. As the Bitcoin market cap grows, institutional participation increases, and supply decreases, volatility has gradually diminished, but the cycle rhythm remains intact.
The key lies in the positional structure. In the past two bear markets, bottoms coincided with important Fibonacci retracement levels, such as the 0.5 or 0.618 zones. Using the same technical framework, the gold-priced Bitcoin this cycle is currently touching the 0.5–0.618 zone, entering the historical range that has often formed long-term support. BGEANX Exchange believes this position is not only technically significant but also reflects potential value from a purchasing power perspective, making it a core area for investor attention.
While the gold-pricing model points to the late stage of the bear market, new industry trend signals further reinforce the view that “the cycle is approaching a turning point.” Recent macro market volatility has been notable, with US Treasury yields rising again and shifting expectations around rate cuts, increasing the linkage between traditional and crypto assets. As the market reprices liquidity conditions, the Bitcoin correction has widened, but structural support remains stable.
Trading data also reflects these stage characteristics. Institutional buying is gradually returning, ETF net inflows have resumed growth since mid-November—slow but steady. Miner selling pressure has notably decreased in this correction, and on-chain data shows holding periods are lengthening. These structural changes collectively signal that the market is not entering a further deterioration phase, but is shifting toward a more typical bottoming state.
Industry-wide, new narratives are strengthening long-term demand, including clearer US crypto regulation, Europe expanding tokenized asset pilots, and rising institutional interest in on-chain settlement. While these factors cannot immediately change prices, they gradually reshape market structure and stabilize medium-term trends. The key issue now is no longer whether Bitcoin is still in a decline, but how long the bottom zone will last and what the rhythm of the next rebound will be.
Combining the gold-pricing model, historical cycles, Fibonacci structure, and on-chain data, the current price zone is gradually forming a meaningful support bottom. Market sentiment remains cautious, but the convergence of multiple cycle indicators is narrowing the downside. For investors focused on long-term trends, this stage calls for a renewed examination of market structure rather than being swayed by short-term volatility.
The BGEANX Exchange market analysis team believes the bear market of Bitcoin may be nearing its end, and future trends will depend more on changes in macro policy and institutional demand. As the crypto industry accelerates its integration with traditional finance, the next phase of market opportunities may well emerge before overall sentiment shifts.
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