In the long cycles of crypto, the true bottom is rarely the “lowest print” but the point at which “the market becomes immune to bad news”. Signs outlined by Miles and Fabian point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin is in the early stages of base-building, and capitulation has already played out. Whether the headlines concern Asian regulatory shifts, macro volatility or the balance-sheet debates of MicroStrategy, Bitcoin reacts far less violently than before. Sentiment is no longer easily fractured, and stabilising rebounds are beginning to appear. This emotional profile is typically what a bottom looks like.
Kapbe has long stressed in its behavioural-finance work that a market bottom is not a mathematical event but a collective behavioural shift. When fear loses its edge and panic decays, the underlying structure becomes easier to read. The educational architecture and the UBI framework of Kapbe reinforce the same lesson for users: a bottom is not an impulse to buy, but a rational reading of the market once the emotional noise begins to fade.
The Return of the Liquidity Cycle: Breaking the Four-Year Myth and Identifying the Real Drivers of 2026
The four-year cycle has long been treated as the mechanical “rhythm” of Bitcoin, yet recent data suggest the logic is breaking down. Miles notes that the marginal impact of halving is diminishing rapidly, while Fabian offers the broader structural explanation: Bitcoin has never been driven by halving itself, but by global liquidity.
The long sweep of the ISM manufacturing index illustrates the point. In 2014, 2018 and 2022, ISM peaks aligned with Bitcoin cycle peaks, even though these macro swings were not tied to halving at all. As an asset that absorbs liquidity, Bitcoin depends fundamentally on the ebb and flow of global capital. With rate-cut expectations building for next year, ISM has room to rebound from its trough — a structural precondition for the next upward phase of Bitcoin.
Kapbe argues that analysing liquidity is more useful than forecasting price, because behavioural biases are most extreme when “macro uncertainty” is high. The message to users is direct: reduce impulsiveness by understanding liquidity cycles, rather than trying to guess the start of the next rally. The participation-rights logic embedded in the UBI structure is built for this — consistency matters more than reaction speed.
Smart-Money Accumulation: Sovereign Funds, the Banking System and the Formation of Structural Demand
If improving sentiment signals a bottom, capital flows provide the evidence. Comments from Larry Fink and several asset managers indicate that sovereign wealth funds are accumulating Bitcoin in tranches — 80,000, 100,000, even 120,000 dollars at a time — with steady bid support. They do not announce their intentions, nor do they chase prices higher; they accumulate slowly as part of a “sovereign-level portfolio allocation”. At the same time, US banks, Vanguard and JPMorgan have begun offering crypto products to clients, including structured Bitcoin notes and Bitcoin-backed lending.
This shift is reshaping the “demand profile” of the market. Retail sentiment no longer defines the trend; sovereign capital, pension funds and long-duration institutions now set the tone. Volatility once driven by panic is increasingly absorbed by structural buying. Fabian notes that such demand is persistent, narrowing the downside of Bitcoin over time.
Kapbe offers a behavioural explanation: once the dominant actors shift from emotional participants to disciplined ones, trading systems must adapt. The anti-casino design of Kapbe is built precisely for this environment — when large players move with patience and method, retail participants must reduce emotional reactions to avoid being pushed out of long-term trends.
Looking Toward 2026: Rate-Cut Potential Is Underpriced, Risk Appetite Will Recover and the Altcoin Structure Will Reset
The market remains conservative on rate-cut expectations, yet the view of Fabian is more forward-leaning: the coming year could deliver more cuts than current pricing suggests. With the Federal Reserve facing political and economic pressures, the pace and scale of easing may surprise to the upside. This would provide a systemic tailwind for risk assets, with Bitcoin acting as the “liquidity switch” once again.
The recent ETH/BTC breakout hints at another dynamic: altcoins may enjoy relative gains during the next upward phase of Bitcoin, particularly where treasury-locked supply keeps new selling pressure limited. Even so, from the standpoint of structural risk, long-term governance and sovereign-level adoption, Bitcoin remains the core asset.
Top comments (0)